Idiot Stock Investor
Idiot Stock Investor was created with the purpose of helping the average (idiot like me) person succeed and excel with their financial life and learn how to make proper investments. More and more people are becoming aware that things like Mutual Funds, Management Firms and Bank Financial plans are simply self-serving, expensive (because of management and extra commission) and have further realized that neither entity has your best interest at heart.
The truth is that many firms stand to make more off unwitting investors, because it is highly profitable to earn higher commission through high risk trades and poorly performing (expensive management fee) mutual funds. The dangeorus myth that many believe is that "they know if I don't make money that I won't stay there". There are enough cases of people losing money because of their financial planner/broker etc. made investments and trades that were only in their own interest for commission.
I've named this site "Idiot Stock Investor" because I'm an idiot with investments. For years I've been too afraid of the stock market and other unguaranteed investments with the fear that "some people lose all of their money with stock". The truth is that most people who lost money were ones who were involved with high risk stocks, instead of solid companies with little risk. Some people who lost money didn't understand what kind of trades and mutual funds were being bought by their investment firm.
The problem is that instead people resorted to Mutual Funds believing "they are safer than stock" which also made people poor during the financial crisis. The simple answer is that the only way to protect yourself is to take a more active role and understand your investments.
Because of this I've made nearly no return by keeping my money in so-called high-interest savings accounts. Now that I've woken up, I'm on track to make more money in a year with less invested than my savings accounts ever made.
I've recently started reading and learning about the markets and stocks, and have had some success myself through self-research and self-directed investing through a "discount on-line broker". I am currently using QTrade, but there are many choices including QuestTrade, OptionsXpress, Scottrade and more, who basically sell wholesale investments. This way you pay less to invest and can profit more/quickly through lower comissions and related fees than going through a broker or bank.
I believe that we can all profit and have a better financial future by better understanding the markets, and by taking away power from the banks and investment brokers who were largely responsible for the current economic crisis, and of course the banks who overcharge with their fees and interest. At the very least, we should all be very well informed and know how our investments work.
I hope to grow a thriving and open community with a welcoming environment so we can all learn and improve our financial future. Idiot Stock Investor will help you make better financial and investment decisions.Join now and take control of your future: Stock Investment Discussion Forums
--The Idiot Stock Investor aka Areeb Yasir
Latest Forum Posts
Canada’s banks considering bid to become trading hub for China’s yuan - Regional Discussion -> North America[url]http://business.financialpost.com/2013/07/04/toronto-china-yuan-offshore/[/url]
This is great news for Canada, I read a prediction years ago that the RMB will be a mainstream currency and this is happening all around the world, I recall reading a similar thing about the UK and how they're inviting the Chinese Banks (something they forbade even recently). I guess it's a sign of changing economic and political times.
This has me thinking that one of the best long-term Forex plays could be the RMB, it's only been appreciating fairly well for years now (at least on the Canadian dollar, investing in it years ago or even a few years ago would have produced a reasonable return).
This article cites low interest rates and inflation through 2014 as having a negative impact on silver. I disagree that this one factor could keep silver down.
I've read some predictions that silver may perform wildly this year in a good way and some predictions of it hitting $18.
I'm not sure what to believe but think silver is volatile but the long-term trend looks good. Speaking of that some banks have been accused of trying to suppress the silver price.
I find it interesting that 50% of silver's demand is from industrial usage and manufacturing.
It also makes mention that some people accuse big banks like JP Morgan of manipulating the price of silver.
[QUOTE]Some market watchers believe there has been manipulation by banks with huge short positions, such as J.P. Morgan. Some, like Eric Sprott, suggest that the CME Group's odd behavior, such as raising margins two days after the silver price had just dropped by 22%, is holding down the price to help the commercial shorts. Regardless of whether you believe these "conspiracy" theories, in the long run, it does not matter. The important thing to realize is that the silver derivatives market, like all derivatives markets, is based on leverage, confidence and promises.
Read more: [url]http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-01/the-silver-singularity-is-near.aspx?storyid=117209#ixzz1l6KHmJYp[/url][/QUOTE]
This article warns of the imbalance and danger in the COMEX futures if too many people want to take delivery.
The same author also writes his 10 reasons why silver will soar
[QUOTE]VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - The housing market is "more likely to cool than correct," according to economists at the Bank of Montreal. They add, "The possible exception is pricey Vancouver." A report from BMO Capital Markets says the "previously red-hot Vancouver market is softening."
Economists Sherry Cooper and Sal Guatieri say "elevated price-to-income ratios do exist in four major cities: Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto and Montreal." They note that in Vancouver "the number of unoccupied newly built condos is high owing to the Olympic Village construction in 2010."
However, they also point out there are more vacant condos in Montreal and a much higher condo rental vacancy rate than Vancouver's.
The BMO report says "the cost of housing is not out of reach for the typical buyer" but adds "many in Vancouver or Toronto may need to settle for a tiny downtown condo, a small bungalow in lower-priced neighbourhoods, or a place in the suburbs." [/QUOTE]
[QUOTE] The Bank of Montreal poured cold water on the idea Canada's housing market could be headed for a crash, suggesting that prices are only "moderately high across the country."
"Expect the housing boom to cool rather than crash," BMO's chief economist Sherry Cooper and senior economist Sal Guatieri said in a report published Monday.
"While the housing boom is unlikely to continue unless mortgage rates drop much further, neither is it likely to bust."
The bank says home values are indeed rising at a faster pace than they used to, but the signs are pointing to a soft landing where prices stabilize — not a hard correction where prices drop quickly by 20 per cent or more.
"In our view, the national housing market is more like a balloon than a bubble," the bank said. "While bubbles always burst, a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a pin."
But demographic factors, consistently low interest rates, low construction costs and an influx of foreign buyers make it likely that no such pin will materialize for the foreseeable future, the bank said.
Average prices have grown more than twice as fast as family incomes since 2001, but BMO's report argues there's no reason to panic yet.
Nationally, home prices are 4.9 times higher than the average household income. A decade ago, that ratio was at 3.2.
Some cities are hotter than others. Vancouver's ratio currently sits at 10 times higher than average household income, Toronto's is at 6.7, Montreal's is at 4.5 while Halifax is at 3.8. Those are all on the high side, but if the market cools, that will allow incomes to catch up and move the price-to-income ratio lower, the bank argues.
The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows the national average price was $347,801 in December, a 0.9 per cent increase over the previous 12 months. That was the lowest level of growth since October 2010 and well below inflation, a possible sign that the market is already cooling.
The bank does note, however, three risks to the outlook. A sudden hike in interest rates, a widespread Canadian recession, or an economic slowdown in Asia reducing the number of foreign buyers would all take the air out of Canada's housing market.
"But barring one of these triggers, however, a dramatic correction is unlikely," the bank said.
I do think there are a lot of valid points and BMO didn't rule a crash out and mentioned a number of factors that could make it happen. Even if it's cooling and soft landing, it doesn't mean that house values won't devalue
a lot in the long-term. They also agree markets like my home area of Vancouver are highly unaffordable and I think this means unrealistic markets like here are more likely to be hit harder than less expensive markets that didn't rise as much and as fast as Vancouver.
Chart Correlates Alan Greenspans laughter with housing crash - Stock/Investment Discussion -> General Investment Discussion[url]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazing-chart-alan-greenspans-laugh-174025901.html[/url]
This was quite a funny read but it's interesting that as the former Fed chair stopped laughing, the housing market dropped in sync.
What's ironic is that the laughter is linked in part to his disbelief about the many dire predictions about the US economy and housing market.
Stock Market Crash 2012 Predictions and Discussion - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock DiscussionThe stock market hasn't gone anywhere fast this year but many have called this an unexpected mini-rally that many expected past Christmas.
This article mentions a "caveat emperor" and in a way sounds the alarm that this rally may be false and shortlived based on positive labor, housing and ear nings reports. I'd pose the question I did last year which is what's changed? The economy isn't improving and Europe still threatens the fragile world economy. There has also been a lot of negative data too, I'm in the group that feels these positive stats are manipulated as stats can be made to show whatever you like in the right hands.
This article also seems like a bit of a warning which is concerning to see in the mainstream. It basically implies that a rally can't be sustained unless the average reluctant person gets back into the market because of the much lighter trading volume.
I found this article funny, most of the smart people are staying out regardless of the market movements. The fact that we see huge bear and rally predictions means it remains to be seen.
My position is that we're in a bear market reflective of the poor world economy and I'm sticking to metals until the world economy has either crashed or recovered.
And my belief is that Capitalism was bound to fail with it only being a matter of time. I don't believe there is a solution because an inherently broken and disfunctional system can only be replaced and band-aid solutions won't help for long.
Oil is a cyclical up and down commodity and rose from the $70's to over $100 in a matter of weeks. For those who invested in a crude futures ETF before that I'm sure they did quite well.
The article above predicts prices for 2012 to remain under $100 and so far that's generally been the case.
Unless the world economy has a miraculous recovery this year I think this call will be correct. There's also one variable which is if the EU embargo Iranian oil and Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz as they've threatened. Some analysts have claimed oil could easily hit over $150 a barrel because 1/6 of the world's oil passes through there including Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations.
If this blockade happens I'd jump into crude quickly but would dump it faster after a decent profit and at the first sign of a resolution to the blockade.
So the EU has embargo'd Iranian oil and Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and to cancel EU contracts for Iranian oil fields and to suddenly cut off the supply to Europe without warning (supposedly causing prices to hit $150 per barrel) according to Iran.
I'd like to add that all of this has done little to change the price of oil. But I bet if Iran suddenly cut off the EU supply or blocked the Strait of Hormuz this would change quickly.
[QUOTE]Iran's parliament is due to debate a bill on Sunday that would cut off oil supplies to the EU in a matter of days, in revenge for a decision last Monday by the 27 EU member states to stop importing crude from Iran as of July 1.
"Generally, the parties to incur damage from the EU's recent decision will be European companies with pending contracts with Iran," Ahmad Qalebani, head of the National Iranian Oil Co. told the ISNA news agency.
"The European companies will have to abide by the provisions of the buyback contracts," he said. "If they act otherwise, they will be the parties to incur the relevant losses and will subject the repatriation of their capital to problems."
By turning the sanctions back on the EU, Iranian lawmakers hope to deny Europe the six-month window it had planned to give those countries most dependent on Iranian oil - including some of the most economically fragile - time to adapt.[/QUOTE]
US Federal Reserve Banks To Keep Rates Low Until 2014 says Ben Bernanke - Regional Discussion -> North America[url]http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bernanke-pledges-keep-rates-low-thru-2014-very-201809310.html[/url]
Their outlook apparently hasn't changed for the US and World economy but as many say their actions don't match their words.
To say that they'll leave the rates low means they have a more negative outlook on the US economy and the world.
This shouldn't be surprised as many have predicted a "lost decade" for US growth. Supposedly this has temporarily propped up stocks but my personal longterm outlook for the US is quite bleak and negative on the economy and stocks.
Sign of a bad US economy? 1/3 of Americans done shopping by December 5th - Regional Discussion -> North America[url]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-many-americans-already-done-185320378.html[/url]
[QUOTE](Reuters) - More than a third of U.S. shoppers are already done with most of their holiday shopping, a survey showed on Monday, signaling that retailers need to offer bigger incentives to win sales in the few weeks before Christmas.
The findings underscore the fragility of the U.S. recovery, since consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the nation's economy.
It definitely appears the average US consumer is increasingly price sensitive and I find this scary because compared to Canada, the US has everything cheap from the cost of living/housing, to all consumer goods being cheaper on an average of 50% or more (this is just my observation).
Canadian Interest Rates for 2011 and beyond and the risk to Eurozone Contagion - Regional Discussion -> North America[QUOTE]But he cautioned once again that Canadian households need to end their spending splurge, particularly on homes, now that their debt levels have reached 149 per cent of income, a higher figure than in the U.S. or Britain.[/QUOTE]
They were speaking specifically about the Euro-zone contagion and in less words he is basically predicting a collapse in Europe of some sort, not that this new or a surprise but to see the Bank of Canada being so direct about it is a surprise. I can only guess they see a storm building quickly and they don't want to be held accountable for being so complacent about the situation until recently.
The Bank of Canada has warned for months that Canadians have too much debt and that those with high debt will be in serious trouble going forward. I'm not sure what to make of this because the last I heard, interest rates in Canada were expected to be stable and low until at least late 2012 or even 2013 because of the economy.
Perhaps they're just worried that our overvalued real estate, combined with so many low-variable rate mortgages will bite a lot of people in the next few years once the rates inevitably rise.
EU/Euro Collapse 2011/2012 and it's impact and possible new World Financial Crisis - Regional Discussion -> EuropeThis thread is being started late but I thought I'd use this one to summarize what's happening and talk about possible scenarios. Europe is now discussing how to "Save the Euro" when just months ago they insisted their banks were fine.
As it stands now, Italy and Spain are very close to defaulting based on the increasing returns on their bonds to entice investors (I never considered Greece and I won't consider any of Europe). IMHO there's nothing that can be done to stop this spiral, the banks may be saved like in the USA but the defaults will inevitably happen and the EU admits they can't afford to bailout Italy or Spain. Moody's and S&P are both talking about downgrading all the Euro countries.
The only question about the downgrade and default of some Euro countries and the breakup of the region and maybe Euro itself is how fast and how bad will it be? Some are even predicting possible anarchy both politically and financially as the EU collapses.
The Bank of Canada has been increasingly dire in their predictions about the Euro in recent weeks and just issued another one now.
[QUOTE]Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is warning that eurozone banks are trying to reduce their indebtedness in "a vicious deleveraging process" as the region sinks into recession, a downturn that is beginning to be felt in the rest of the world.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Carney warned that the world’s advanced economies have spent a generation accumulating a “mountain of debt,” with global public debt to global GDP reaching a ratio of almost 80 per cent, a level that has “historically been associated with widespread sovereign defaults.”
If the process of reducing debt is mishandled, he said, it could lead to disorderly defaults and social unrest.
It hasn't happened yet but the crisis definitely not over. It has me wondering why the Ukraine wants to join the EU so bad at a time like this? Many countries who were denied are quite happy and feeling lucky.
RIM (Research In Motion) Comments and Observations - Stock/Investment Discussion -> General Investment DiscussionI think these latest stories say enough about the future of RIM and it's management:
2 Managers disrupted a flight from Toronto to Beijing and while apparently on official RIM business!
Indonesia was touted as being a "huge success" for RIM in a recent CBC special but it looks like their hold on Indonesia is being threatened:
With that said, there's of course the recent service outage for days and a huge writedown due to the failure of the Playbook (but the true cause is poor management, product development and business strategy):
I know I'm being hard on RIM but rightly so IMHO. I actually liked them a lot for being a Canadian success story and owned a Blackberry for 3 years. Years ago they were great for e-mail but they just haven't evolved past that point and certainly not at par with Android or IOS, or even close.
For over 2 years I predicted that RIM was ultimately doomed despite the case many people/analysts made for their viability. Look at their stock price today compared to 2 years ago and you'll see who was right :)
I predict they are still doomed and will be absorbed or bought by a competitor in the future, if RIM is still worth anything. This all depends on how well they implement their next generation of tablets and phones with the so-called (and months delayed) QNX OS. My prediction is that it will be a flop and even if it's not, it won't be enough to overcome the share that Android and IOS have been steadily stealing from them.
The only way to turn things around (if it's even possible at this point) is a complete company shakeup. They should fire all top management because they seem incompetent and incapable (especially if the Air Canada flight experience tells us more about their management style).
Ultimately I predict that for whatever reasons they turn out to be, RIM is doomed and is past the point of no return even if they do everything right from this point on.
This is very useful, I've been considering some sub dollar mining stocks of companies within Canada since we have the lowest geopolitical risk.
However, this doesn't mean that speculation and manipulation couldn't artificially prop up the price of oil.
For the last several weeks Crude has hovered around ~100 a barrel and suddenly shot up.
With that said, it's obvious there's no way the $160 a barrel predictions will come true anytime soon, and if oil does keep rising, it's all manipulation IMHO.
This doesn't make any sense to me, the economy has been really slow and consumption and demand are down worldwide, if not due alone to China's manufacturing slowdown.
I agree with their merits though, don't look at dividends alone, and if anything see how their dividends changed during the 2008 market crash.
I now keep in mind that dividends are nothing compared to the growth of a stock. A good and stable company means nothing if the stock has become so devalued that you've lost so much and can't sell.
This happened to me with CHL, China Mobile. Their dividends are strong, the company will never go bankrupt, but I've still lost over 20% as the stock crashed shortly after a selloff by Vodafone. If the stock price does not recover quickly, it will take years before I break even.
If you toss everything together it's harder to sell one that is underperforming since it means you're selling good performing commodities at the same time.
I guess you can call it a general commodity index but I don't like it, I'd like to keep them separate so you can capitalize on a specific commodity and buy/sell when needed without bunching these all together.
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Jun 11 11.29% NYMEX Heating Oil Jun 11 11.25% COMEX Gold Futures Apr 11 8.56% COMEX Copper Futures May 11 8.45% NYMEX Crude Light Futures Dec 11 8.19% COMEX Silver Futures May 11 6.89% CBOT Corn Futures Dec 11 6.49% CBOT Soybeans Futures Nov 11 5.58% ICE-US Cotton Futures Dec 11 4.50% ICE-US Sugar No. 11 Futures Jul 11 3.26%
Feedback on Stock Tip Sites? - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock Broker Reviews/Suggestions/FeedbackFrom what I gather generally the various tip services consistent of a combination or variation of the following:
[*]Educated Information from industry veterans
[*]Computer/Data Analysis and Indicators of opportunities/risks in the stock market
[*]Specialized Industry/Business Analysts who look for and predict likely opportunities[/LIST]If I'm missing something of course please correct me. They all of course promise they're the best and show charts saying their returns have been higher than competitor/index ABZ for XYZ years.
So which services do you know about and which ones have you used? Have you actually been able to make good use of the services to buy low and sell high, and more importantly to sell before a stock crashes?
I'm curious to know what (if) any services predicted the 2008 stock crash successfully.
Fortunately as of lately crude has been retreating and hopefully it stays that way.
I think we should all, always study past crashes to hope that we can predict and see the warning signs of future ones, of which have been in our face since last year.
I was thinking of getting in on it since oil started rising like mad, but the day I said I was going to do it, oil plummeted.
People say metals are risky but when I look at crude I don't see much way of making money and it's not a long-term investment and if you look at the fluctuations it's a bad investment IMHO.
I'd always stay away from crude, it's extremely volatile and hard to profit from. If you must invest in crude, you're best to do it in an ETF that buys equities in related gasoline companies and refiners etc...
Financial Forecast Center - Comments/Feedback? - Stock/Investment Discussion -> General Investment DiscussionWhat do people think about the quality and accuracy of their predictions? Is it biased, is it wrong or is it correct?
They claim they are unbiased but yet they are owned by an LLC:
The Financial Forecast Center is a service of Financial Forecast Center, LLC. FFC LLC is a small, privately owned Texas corporation located in Houston, Texas, USA.
[QUOTE]About the Financial Forecast Center
The Financial Forecast Center has been producing and publishing economic and financial market forecasts since 1997. These forecasts have been and will continue to be published exclusively on the internet.
All forecasts are generated in-house using artificial intelligence. The forecast models are 100% quantitative and use a global, long-range economic dataset. Thus, the forecasts are very objective. And because the Financial Forecast Center has no ties to other companies or institutions, our products and services are completely independent.
The Financial Forecast Center is a service of Financial Forecast Center, LLC. FFC LLC is a small, privately owned Texas corporation located in Houston, Texas, USA.
Prior to 2005, The Financial Forecast Center was a service of Market Research International and Applied Reasoning, Inc. Financial Forecast Center, LLC was split off from Applied Reasoning, Inc. in 2005 to focus on the creation and publishing of market forecasts while Applied Reasoning, Inc. focuses on the development of artificial intelligence software.
Investing in an Index, what does this mean and how do you do it? - Stock/Investment Discussion -> General Investment DiscussionI read some comments in various sites about people saying "I invest in an Index because the returns are stable when the market rises".
I also didn't realize what an Index was and how I could invest in it.
So what is an Index?
An Index actually doesn't exist, yes I said it doesn't exist. An Index is like a "virtual-stock" that appears as a single stock. Eg. the DOW and S&P Indexes simply take select companies stock/equities and represent them as if they were all one stock.
Indexes are useful because they're an easy way/benchmark to see what's happening in the markets and are indicators of if things are moving up or down.
So how can you invest in an Index?
I said it before, it doesn't exist, you can't directly invest in the S&P 500 for example. Well if you're rich I'm sure you could buy an equal weighted balance of all of those stocks but let's be realistic.
What you can do is get into Mutual Funds or ETFs that do just what I mentioned above, they basically buy the stocks of a certain Index so you get essentially the same effect (minus the typical management fees).
Some examples of ETFs (I don't like Mutual Funds):
HEW.TO mirrors the S&P/TSX 60 Index:
ZCB.TO replicates the S&P GSCI Base Metals Index:
ZCN.TO replicates the DOW JONES Canada Titans 60 Index:
This was an interesting article but I do remember reading similar valuations months ago. It was a surprise to me that Japan owns as much of the US as it does.
I didn't realize the UK owned as much as it does, and with the Middle East being right after the UK, I'm not surprised.
The only allies that owe much of their debt would be the UK, Taiwan, Canada and maybe some of the Caribbean.
Hypothetically what happens if China and Japan demand their money back by selling their US bonds? Is it really true they may have to give up some of their territory or would they shoot themselves by printing more money?
Record highs for oil, gold and silver - Stock/Investment Discussion -> General Investment Discussion[url]http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/03/02/oil-prices-libya.html[/url]
I wonder if this will last or if it's just going to be temporary, assuming the tension in North Africa and the Middle East ends in the near future.
They will definitely be raising the rates this year though, they've almost promised that much.
The graph shows a clear trend that variable works out to be cheaper, however with record low rates (well at least until recently) I think fixed is a better way to go, especially since rates can and only have been moving up from the historic lows (as you'd expect). I find it funny how banks still want you to take variable and try to sell you on it, well of course they do :)
The TFSA implementation was done in a way that left people unsure of the rules, it's not as simple as the banks make it sound either, and little to no effort appears to have been done to educate people.
For those who know, please provide some details about the TFSA and how to avoid being penalized.
It sounds like people were punished for doing seemingly normal things such as withdrawing from one TFSA and moving it to another bank, but they still got penalized.
How about if you invest $5000 as your maximum in a TFSA stock account, what happens if it grows by interest above $5000, will you be taxed?
What if you keep buying and selling stocks into that TFSA, will you be penalized for buying and selling the wrong/way at the wrong time?
What is the correct way to move your money in and out of a TFSA/switch institutions?
So far they've been right, they are Bullish on:
Crude Oil, Corn, Soybeans, Gold and Copper, but why not Silver?
I was thinking of investing in the COW Commodity ETF or the BMO ETF (ZCA) which invests in commodity futures.
With inflation hitting the whole world shouldn't this mean food commodities will rise with the inflation of food prices?
So basically an Agriculture ETF will be something that invests in futures of agricultural commodities.
Since I'm in Canada there are only two I'm aware of:
COW.TO (Claymore Agriculture ETF which says it follows the MFC Index). Has anyone heard of that Index because the only reference I've ever found to it was from their ETF?
ZCA.TO this is different because it invests in the futures of things like wheat, corn, soybean, coffee, sugar etc..
I think COW has done well and it's appealing even though I'm not sure how it quite works. I like how it had a recent dip in the charts but is heading back up.
ZCA is new, I believe it even started in February of this year and has to prove itself.
What concerns me about agriculture/commodity ETFs are that I don't understand these industries and haven't found any good/simple explanations of their investment risk/reward value in the past, now and in the future.
I'd like to know more about what cause the different commodities futures to rise and fall to get an idea of how stable an investment like this is.
This can't be good, but it's no wonder, the economy has been suffering, and wages here in Canada have not increased with inflation at all. To make it worse our cost of living (housing, food, gas etc..) is all much higher than most places, especially the USA.
I think the government already predicted it will grow slowly, most analysts/experts consider this growth to be stagnant and not an indication that we're back on track.
Canada's post-recession economy slipping, says Conference Board of Canada"
This is a bit worrisome but it's a trend that is not surprising to me as a Canadian.
I've been following this developing story but haven't posted much about it but here is the starkest warning for the Canadian economy in recent months from the Bank of Canada. Ironically our government for months (until recently) had claimed everything was fine and our economy was great, well managed and unaffected by the global economic crisis but many of us knew otherwise, that the USA economy and ultimately the EU will be hitting us hard.
Europe's debt crisis a risk here, Bank of Canada warns
I'm waiting for a mass sell-off of profit taking silver owners before investing.
Back in November these people made a big prediction and so far it is turning out like they've said (although I don't know what/if any massive event started the run of silver):
Silver recently hit a 31-year high: [url]http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-futures-hit-highest-level-since-1980-2011-02-18?siteid=yhoof[/url]
This again is what makes me somewhat nervous about getting into silver, I'd like to see it fall from profit-taking and then go for it.
Silver has nearly hit $50
However Silver is currently sliding before $48 at $47.88 at this moment.
I sold my HUZ shares last week in anticipation that there will be a correction since gold is picking up steam and silver is showing signs of at least temporary weakness.
Home Sales have still been sliding for more than a year IIRC:
Canadian home sales down 6.6 per cent from last January, but prices up:
With CHU I got out with about 6% return which I can't complain about. It would have been far more if I had waited for a few more days for it to hit $17+ or even waited for the steady $16.43 it's been at.
The main reason those particular stocks fell is because Voda Phone sold billions of their shares.
Of course this doesn't reflect the over-all Chinese market, it generally has done well for the BMO ETFs such as ZCH.TO with the exception of the last few days/weeks. This is because more news has come out saying that China is trying to curb inflation, speculation and slow the economy.
For the long-term I think the stocks would do well but I just wish I didn't have to hang onto CHL and wait for it to recover (I'm guessing it could be at least a year or more to break even for myself).
You can see in this report here that once the Bank of China tried to curb inflation the China ETFs dipped further:
Some analysts also say they believe India may be a better bet at this time and their economy has further to go.
Personally I'm in things for the short-term and I'm leaning towards home investments that I understand better and know the potential risks. In Canada if you pick a good utility you generally can't lose in the long-run and the dividends are quite attractive.
According to the Yahoo Finance article, Copper doesn't offer anything better than Gold or Silver do, nor does it have the long-term value or attractiveness to mainstream/large investors.
That may be, but copper has been hitting record highs along with silver and would have made an attractive short-term investment so far.
Gold has hovered between 1400-1422 per ounce ever since the Libyan riots have broke out and the catalyst may have been Egypt.
The question is, is this rebound in gold a continuing trend or something temporary that will reverse once/if Libya stabilizes and other similar events stop?
My theory is that gold should keep climbing, but it may not if the economy improves even though the 2011 economic recovery is quite slow around the world IMHO.
These guys think gold could slip to $1100
Goldman Sachs says gold could hit a top of $1700 by 2012.
In this article they warned that if Egypt ends happily, gold will trade down or sideways:
Of course that wasn't the case since Libya happened and it spurred things further.
These guys [URL]http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13892626-3b36-11e0-9970-00144feabdc0.html[/URL] think that Gold will be good this year because of strong demand in Asia.
This article seems to confirm part of the highs in Gold/Silver have been spurred by Libya: [url]http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-on-track-for-seventh-day-of-gains-2011-02-21?siteid=yhoof[/url]
This is an interesting article, a lot of firms are predicting different numbers between $1300 and $1600.
I still believe gold in the long-term will do well regardless of the rises and declines in the short-term.
I also believe the recent Middle East crisis played a role in propping Gold back up.
Gold is currently trading at $1563, I believe it will hit at least 1600 and I also bet there will be a correction of some sort in May.
Since I've posted here, there have been corrections and a lot of sideways trades. Gold even hit over $1900 USD which beat my prediction and a lot of others except the hardcore bulls. I'm personally still awaiting a market crash before making any new investments, even in metals or confirmation that there won't be one (but I've been expected one since October 2010 lol so time will tell).
Gold will continue to hit record levels for the next few years I believe, regardless of if the Euro-crisis is supposedly solved (which it can't be) and most industrialized nations will still be in a for a time of negative or near-negative growth, combined with the prospects of increasing political instability.
Gold is currently trading at $1665 and dropped about $51 over the weekend.
This almost seems like a good buying opportunity but I'm still waiting.
Current discussion here: [url]http://forums.idiotstockinvestor.com/The_current_goldsilver_situation_StockInvestment_Discussion_Gold_Investments-167-t[/url]
[quote=idiotstockinvestor;266]Gold is currently trading at $1665 and dropped about $51 over the weekend.
This almost seems like a good buying opportunity but I'm still waiting.[/quote]
It turns out that during then and now it would have been a bad idea to buy at least for this period of time you would be in the red with gold today at $1252.49 USD/ounce.
It's almost unreal how this "Double Irish" works too:
[QUOTE]Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Lost to Tax Loopholes
By Jesse Drucker - Oct 21, 2010 3:00 AM PT Thu Oct 21 10:00:00 GMT 2010
[*] [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/google-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes.html#share"]More[/URL] [LIST]
[*] [EMAIL="?body=%20Google%20Inc.%20%20cut%20its%20taxes%20by%20%243.1%0Abillion%20in%20the%20last%20three%20years%20using%20a%20technique%20that%20moves%0Amost%20of%20its%20foreign%20profits%20through%20Ireland%20and%20the%20Netherlands%0Ato%20Bermuda.%0A%0Ahttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2010-10-21%2Fgoogle-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes.html&subject=Bloomberg%20news%3A%20Google%202.4%25%20Rate%20Shows%20How%20%2460%20Billion%20Lost%20to%20Tax%20Loopholes"]Email[/EMAIL][/LIST] Image:
The Dublin subsidiary, which employs almost 2,000 people and sells advertising across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, has more than tripled its workforce since 2006 and is credited with almost 90 percent of Google’s overseas sales, which totaled $12.5 billion in 2008. Photographer: Paul McErlane/Bloomberg
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc. cut its taxes by $3.1 billion in the last three years using a technique that moves most of its foreign profits through Ireland and the Netherlands to Bermuda. Google’s income shifting helped reduce its overseas tax rate to 2.4 percent, the lowest of the top five U.S. technology companies by market capitalization. Bloomberg's Melissa Long reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
The Google Inc. European headquarters Dublin. Photographer: Paul McErlane/Bloomberg
The Google Inc. European headquarters are seen in Barrow Street, Dublin. Photographer: Paul McErlane/Bloomberg
The Google Inc. company logo sits at their European headquarters in Barrow Street, Dublin. Photographer: Paul McErlane/Bloomberg
Pedestrians walk past the offices of the Conyers, Dill & Pearman law firm in Clarendon House located on Church Street in Hamilton, Bermuda. Photographer: Mark Tatem/Bloomberg
[URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GOOG:US"]Google Inc.[/URL] cut its taxes by $3.1 billion in the last three years using a technique that moves most of its foreign profits through Ireland and the Netherlands to Bermuda.
Google’s income shifting -- involving strategies known to lawyers as the “Double Irish” and the “Dutch Sandwich” -- helped reduce its overseas tax rate to 2.4 percent, the lowest of the top five U.S. technology companies by market capitalization, according to [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GOOG:US"]regulatory filings[/URL] in six countries.
“It’s remarkable that Google’s effective rate is that low,” said [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Martin%20A.%20Sullivan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Martin A. Sullivan[/URL], a tax economist who formerly worked for the U.S. Treasury Department. “We know this company operates throughout the world mostly in high-tax countries where the average corporate rate is well over 20 percent.”
The U.S. corporate income-tax rate is 35 percent. In the U.K., Google’s second-biggest market by revenue, it’s 28 percent.
Google, the owner of the world’s most popular search engine, uses a strategy that has gained favor among such companies as Facebook Inc. and Microsoft Corp. The method takes advantage of Irish tax law to legally shuttle profits into and out of subsidiaries there, largely escaping the country’s 12.5 percent income tax. (See an interactive graphic on Google’s tax strategy [URL="http://www.businessweek.com/technology/google-tax-cut/google-terminal.html"]here[/URL].)
The [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GOOG:US"]earnings[/URL] wind up in island havens that levy no corporate income taxes at all. Companies that use the Double Irish arrangement avoid taxes at home and abroad as the U.S. government struggles to close a projected $1.4 trillion [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDEBTY:IND"]budget gap[/URL] and European Union countries face a collective projected deficit of 868 billion euros.
Google, the third-largest U.S. technology company by market capitalization, hasn’t been accused of breaking tax laws. “Google’s practices are very similar to those at countless other global companies operating across a wide range of industries,” said [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jane%20Penner&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Jane Penner[/URL], a spokeswoman for the Mountain View, California-based company. Penner declined to address the particulars of its tax strategies.
Facebook, the world’s biggest social network, is preparing a structure similar to Google’s that will send earnings from Ireland to the Cayman Islands, according to the company’s filings in Ireland and the Caymans and to a person familiar with its plans. A spokesman for the Palo Alto, California-based company declined to comment.
The tactics of Google and Facebook depend on “transfer pricing,” paper transactions among corporate [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GOOG:US"]subsidiaries[/URL] that allow for allocating income to tax havens while attributing expenses to higher-tax countries. Such income shifting costs the U.S. government as much as $60 billion in annual revenue, according to Kimberly A. Clausing, an economics professor at Reed College in Portland, Oregon.
U.S. Representative [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dave%20Camp&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Dave Camp[/URL] of Michigan, the ranking Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, and other politicians say the 35 percent U.S. statutory rate is too high relative to foreign countries. International income-shifting, which helped cut Google’s overall effective tax rate to 22.2 percent last year, shows one way that loopholes undermine that top U.S. rate.
Two thousand U.S. companies paid a median effective cash rate of 28.3 percent in federal, state and foreign income taxes in a 2005 study by academics at the University of Michigan and the University of North Carolina. The combined national-local statutory rate is 34.4 percent in France, 30.2 percent in Germany and 39.5 percent in Japan, according to the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The Double Irish
As a strategy for limiting taxes, the Double Irish method is “very common at the moment, particularly with companies with intellectual property,” said [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Richard%20Murphy&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Richard Murphy[/URL], director of U.K.- based Tax Research LLP. Murphy, who has worked on similar transactions, estimates that hundreds of multinationals use some version of the method.
The high corporate tax rate in the U.S. motivates companies to move activities and related income to lower-tax countries, said Irving H. Plotkin, a senior managing director at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP’s national tax practice in Boston. He delivered a presentation in Washington, D.C. this year titled “Transfer Pricing is Not a Four Letter Word.”
“A company’s obligation to its shareholders is to try to minimize its taxes and all costs, but to do so legally,” Plotkin said in an interview.
Google’s transfer pricing contributed to international tax benefits that boosted its earnings by 26 percent last year, company filings show. Based on a rough analysis, if the company paid taxes at the 35 percent rate on all its earnings, its share price might be reduced by about $100, said [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Clayton%20Moran&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Clayton Moran[/URL], an analyst at Benchmark Co. in Boca Raton, Florida. He recommends buying Google stock, which closed yesterday at $607.98.
The company, which tells employees “[URL="http://investor.google.com/corporate/code-of-conduct.html"]don’t be evil[/URL]” in its code of conduct, has cut its effective tax rate abroad more than its peers in the technology sector: Apple Inc., the maker of the iPhone; [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MSFT:US"]Microsoft[/URL], the largest software company; [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=IBM:US"]International Business Machines Corp.[/URL], the biggest computer-services provider; and Oracle Corp., the second-biggest software company. Those companies reported rates that ranged between 4.5 percent and 25.8 percent for 2007 through 2009.
Google is “flying a [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GOOG:US"]banner[/URL] of doing no evil, and then they’re perpetrating evil under our noses,” said [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Abraham%20J.%20Briloff&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Abraham J. Briloff[/URL], a professor emeritus of accounting at Baruch College in New York who has examined Google’s tax disclosures.
“Who is it that paid for the underlying concept on which they built these billions of dollars of revenues?” Briloff said. “It was paid for by the United States citizenry.”
The U.S. [URL="http://www.nsf.gov/"]National Science Foundation[/URL] funded the mid-1990s research at Stanford University that helped lead to Google’s creation. Taxpayers also paid for a scholarship for the company’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, while he worked on that research. Google now has a stock market value of $194.2 billion.
Google’s annual reports from 2007 to 2009 ascribe a cumulative $3.1 billion tax savings to the “foreign rate differential.” Such entries typically describe how much tax U.S. companies save from profits earned overseas.
In February, the [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Obama[/URL] administration proposed measures to curb shifting profits offshore, part of a package intended to raise $12 billion a year over the coming decade. While the key proposals largely haven’t advanced in Congress, the IRS said in April it would devote additional agents and lawyers to focus on five large transfer pricing arrangements.
Income shifting commonly begins when companies like Google sell or license the foreign rights to intellectual property developed in the U.S. to a subsidiary in a low-tax country. That means foreign profits based on the technology get attributed to the offshore unit, not the parent. Under U.S. tax rules, subsidiaries must pay “arm’s length” prices for the rights -- or the amount an unrelated company would.
Because the payments contribute to taxable income, the parent company has an incentive to set them as low as possible. Cutting the foreign subsidiary’s expenses effectively shifts profits overseas.
After three years of negotiations, Google received approval from the IRS in 2006 for its transfer pricing arrangement, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IRS gave its consent in a secret pact known as an advanced pricing agreement. Google wouldn’t discuss the price set under the arrangement, which licensed the rights to its search and advertising technology and other intangible property for Europe, the Middle East and Africa to a unit called Google Ireland Holdings, according to a person familiar with the matter.
That licensee in turn owns Google Ireland Limited, which employs almost 2,000 people in a silvery glass office building in central Dublin, a block from the city’s Grand Canal. The Dublin subsidiary sells advertising globally and was credited by Google with 88 percent of its $12.5 billion in non-U.S. sales in 2009.
Allocating the revenue to Ireland helps Google avoid income taxes in the U.S., where most of its technology was developed. The arrangement also reduces the company’s liabilities in relatively high-tax European countries where many of its customers are located.
The profits don’t stay with the Dublin subsidiary, which reported pretax income of less than 1 percent of sales in 2008, according to Irish records. That’s largely because it paid $5.4 billion in royalties to Google Ireland Holdings, which has its “effective centre of management” in Bermuda, according to company filings.
Law Firm Directors
This Bermuda-managed entity is owned by a pair of Google subsidiaries that list as their directors two attorneys and a manager at Conyers Dill & Pearman, a Hamilton, Bermuda law firm.
Tax planners call such an arrangement a Double Irish because it relies on two Irish companies. One pays royalties to use intellectual property, generating expenses that reduce Irish taxable income. The second collects the royalties in a tax haven like Bermuda, avoiding Irish taxes.
To steer clear of an Irish withholding tax, payments from Google’s Dublin unit don’t go directly to Bermuda. A brief detour to the Netherlands avoids that liability, because Irish tax law exempts certain royalties to companies in other EU- member nations. The fees first go to a Dutch unit, Google Netherlands Holdings B.V., which pays out about 99.8 percent of what it collects to the Bermuda entity, company filings show. The Amsterdam-based subsidiary lists no employees.
The Dutch Sandwich
Inserting the Netherlands stopover between two other units gives rise to the “Dutch Sandwich” nickname.
“The sandwich leaves no tax behind to taste,” said Murphy of Tax Research LLP.
Microsoft, based in Redmond, Washington, has also used a Double Irish structure, according to company filings overseas. [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FRX:US"]Forest Laboratories Inc.[/URL], maker of the antidepressant Lexapro, does as well, Bloomberg News reported in May. The New York-based drug manufacturer claims that most of its profits are earned overseas even though its sales are almost entirely in the U.S. Forest later disclosed that its transfer pricing was being audited by the IRS.
Since the 1960s, Ireland has pursued a strategy of offering tax incentives to attract multinationals. A lesser-appreciated aspect of Ireland’s appeal is that it allows companies to shift income out of the country with minimal tax consequences, said Jim Stewart, a senior lecturer in finance at Trinity College’s school of business in Dublin.
Getting Profits Out
“You accumulate profits within Ireland, but then you get them out of the country relatively easily,” Stewart said. “And you do it by using Bermuda.”
Eoin Dorgan, a spokesman for the [URL="http://www.finance.gov.ie/"]Irish Department of Finance[/URL], declined to comment on Google’s strategies specifically. “Ireland always seeks to ensure that the profits charged in Ireland fully reflect the functions, assets and risks located here by multinational groups,” he said.
Once Google’s non-U.S. profits hit Bermuda, they become difficult to track. The subsidiary managed there changed its legal form of organization in 2006 to become a so-called unlimited liability company. Under Irish rules, that means it’s not required to disclose such financial information as income statements or balance sheets.
“Sticking an unlimited company in the group structure has become more common in Ireland, largely to prevent disclosure,” Stewart said.
Technically, multinationals that shift profits overseas are deferring U.S. income taxes, not avoiding them permanently. The deferral lasts until companies decide to bring the earnings back to the U.S. In practice, they rarely repatriate significant portions, thus avoiding the taxes indefinitely, said Michelle Hanlon, an accounting professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
U.S. policy makers, meanwhile, have taken halting steps to address concerns about transfer pricing. In 2009, the Treasury Department proposed levying taxes on certain payments between U.S. companies’ foreign subsidiaries.
Treasury officials, who estimated the policy change would raise $86.5 billion in new revenue over the next decade, dropped it after Congress and Treasury were lobbied by companies, including manufacturing and media conglomerate General Electric Co., health-product maker [URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JNJ:US"]Johnson & Johnson[/URL] and coffee giant Starbucks Corp., according to federal disclosures compiled by the non-profit Center for Responsive Politics.
While the administration “remains concerned” about potential abuses, officials decided “to defer consideration of how to reform those rules until they can be studied more broadly,” said Sandra Salstrom, a Treasury spokeswoman. The White House still proposes to tax excessive profits of offshore subsidiaries as a curb on income shifting, she said.
The rules for transfer pricing should be replaced with a system that allocates profits among countries the way most U.S. states with a corporate income tax do -- based on such aspects as sales or number of employees in each jurisdiction, said [URL="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Reuven%20S.%20Avi-Yonah&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja"]Reuven S. Avi-Yonah[/URL], director of the international tax program at the University of Michigan Law School.
“The system is broken and I think it needs to be scrapped,” said Avi-Yonah, also a special counsel at law firm Steptoe & Johnson LLP in Washington D.C. “Companies are getting away with murder.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Drucker in New York at [EMAIL="firstname.lastname@example.org"]email@example.com[/EMAIL].
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gary Putka at [EMAIL="firstname.lastname@example.org"]email@example.com[/EMAIL].
This article finds the same reasons that I do for a possible crash this year, which I felt would have happened last year. The economy isn't as good as people think it is and Europe is by no means out of trouble, all of this seems to point to an artificial market/bull run that has to come to a crash back to reality.
This article seems to tell things like they are, you can't see such a huge drop last week in the world markets and think it's only temporary. I think it's a sign of what is to come at some point this year, regardless of if the markets seem to recover.
I've noticed in the last several weeks that lots of good stocks and companies have stalled, they're not rising as much as they should.
The Dow's Plunge: Should You Be Worried?
This article predicts that next week in the TSX will be a continued downward trend, and usually the TSX follows the same lines as the NYSE so I bet both will do the same thing.
Regardless of what people say, I'm sure insiders must know this is either the start of a crash/bear market or a temporary correction. At least they're not denying that the market has been hot and has climbed high and hard for more than 2 years and that things do have to slow down at some point.
But could this be like the correction in 2008 just before the big crash? I've always said something is wrong when metals like gold/silver are rising with equities since that shouldn't be happening. Although I'm new to the investment scene, I've read and seen enough to know that what's happened in recent months defies the norm.
According to this article the market is healthy, strong and predictable. If the market was so predictable the mainstream media would have forecast the 2008 crash well in advance and failing that, with things being so predictable no one would have lost money right?
I'm not trying to be cynical but this seems like propaganda, IMHO the markets are showing signs of weakness and instability still.
I've noticed that in recent days the stock markets have been in the red or barely advancing, while Gold & Silver has been moving like mad. I think we're getting closer to a crash.
It hasn't happened yet but during the summer there was an unprecedented downturn in the entire world stock markets. Even until now the markets have been all over the place, and are often up or down a few percent or more each day. Ever since then many things have happened including the Eurozone problems coming to the forefront and also news that the US economy especially hasn't been doing as well as the media portrayed it. As most of us know, regardless of the numbers games that are being played, the US economy is not doing well and consumers are especially struggling still.
I still think we are heading to a crash and that the poor world economy hasn't been accounted for in the stock markets. I think we could still see something the same or worse than 2008, but then again my belief about this happening last year didn't happen and it so far hasn't happened this year exactly.
Let's hope for a real estate crash in Vancouver, sooner than later.
The commissions are decent for a Canadian broker (on average $20 CAD) per trade so you pay this when you buy or sell.
Eg. I place a buy limit order for a stock and suddenly the money disappears from my account but it's not for 24+ hours that I see the stock has been bought and what I paid for it.
I would at least expect e-mail notification of the following:
1. That my order has been placed and confirmed for the following (eg. x units, and limit price if any).
2.) If my order has been filled I expect instant notification/reflection in the on-line account and an e-mail with the details of commission, units bought and price.
But neither of those occurs when buying or selling stocks, it also isn't easy to search the history and determine which transactions as dividend payments. It can be done if you look at a positive debit being done but the transaction often won't look much different than buying a stock with the exception of the amounts being different.
QTrade has an outdated system, fast customer service responses but their procedures leave a lot to be desired.
I am very nervous that a mistake could happen with their system where money is lost/disappears into thin error and the customer like us may not notice it. The bottom line is that for financial transactions they don't cut it when it comes to reporting and notifications and I believe this should practical be illegal to have such negligent reporting/lack of notifications to the customer.
In only recent months have most stocks returned or exceeded their pre-2008 crash levels.
So this is a serious question, are you staying/waiting to sell for a good profit, or are you brave enough to continue buying?
Silver is at about $27.43 per ounce
I was doing well at first with CGL (Claymore Gold Fund) but as we know Gold has slid for weeks now and some have predicted this while others predicted it would fly high.
I also hold PBU.UN which is a mix of silver, gold and cash and has not been affected that much. I'm still making about 10% off PBU.UN and it pays dividends on top of that.
Silver has done very well, if I had invested in a pure Canadian Silver ETF I would have literally made 40% profit so far!
But even silver has been sliding.
I'm really an amateur but I think we've been overdue for a market crash since last fall, the US economy is not good, nor is Europe's and perhaps selective media reporting is what has propelled stocks unrealistically high. Even Yahoo Finance was warning against this, as stocks continue to hit record highs in recent years.
So I'm banking that the economic news will become realistic and people will go back to Silver and Gold. What was happening before is the rich people were selling high and crashing it, and repeating the cycle. They always know things we don't, and for some reason they're waiting, or it could be that they want Gold to go much lower and then create a bull rush
Gold 1252.49 USD/ounce
Silver 20.28 USD/ounce
Well things have not gone well since the crash/bear market territory of metals happened in early 2011, at the end of it not much has changed and the metals have generally been on a slow downward decline.
Some have predicted Gold could fall further to $900 USD/ounce while others are sure it's time for a long sustained rally and exit from this extended bear market in metals.
I believe in the long-term prospects of this stock but I like to avoid the NYSE because of currency issues since I am a Canadian.
What is the other reason I sold it? I've felt since November that we're overdue for a crash and market correction and when a crash happens virtually no stock is safe except Commodity stocks especially Gold/Silver. So in short, I don't trust the market or the NYSE. I wanted to get rid of this stock and lock in some profit. I also hold CHL (China Mobile) which is in a big hole right now of about $-7.50 so I'm a bit anxious to avoid risk.
If some Chinese stocks were listed on the TSX I would have been more likely to hold them, and if I didn't feel a market crash is looming I also would have kept holding them.
I've had gold ETFs for a few months (as in the bare metal) and the one that mixed silver has done the best while gold has made next to nothing.
I'm not expert but it seems to me that the economy is not great and the stock market is bound for a crash, as the mainstream news is always warning/predicting it noting that "x day is a 2 year high" and trading "could become volatile".
I believe gold is being manipulated and for the most part the rich are controlling the rise and fall of gold, they let it hit a record high and start taking profits. This seems to be the pattern of gold since I've had it.
Recession could have permanent impact if Canada doesn't take action: report - Regional Discussion -> North AmericaThis sounds interesting, we already know we aren't getting enough foreign investment and I know that our IT market in Canada is practically non-existent.
Recession could have permanent impact if Canada doesn't take action: report
Mary Gazze, The Canadian Press, On Thursday December 30, 2010, 7:57 pm
By Mary Gazze, The Canadian Press
TORONTO - The recent economic crisis could permanently limit Canada's productivity and future GDP growth unless governments get rid of barriers to foreign ownership and Canadian firms spend on innovation, according to a report published Thursday.
The report by the Ottawa-based Centre for the Study of Living Standards notes that Canada survived the recession relatively well compared with other countries but that the economic crisis still led to a downward spiral in potential growth.
For example, the lower level of investment that came with the downturn led to a one percentage point fall in potential GDP growth last year, which the report's authors describe as "severe."
They expect growth to swing back to the positive side at about two per cent in the medium term, but that is still at a rate below pre-crisis levels.
"That will be reversed over time but still, even by 2015 we're going to be growing at a lower rate potentially than we were back in 2006 and 2008, so the recession really hurt the economy in terms of our ability to produce," said Andrew Sharpe, the centre's executive director.
Higher labour productivity levels are important because they lead to higher income per worker.
Sharpe said the country's productivity will naturally decline over time as baby boomers retire and there are fewer workers around to produce.
But that the trend can be turned around with strategic economic policies, including removing obstacles that make it harder for seniors over age 65 to work, according to the centre's report.
It also cites the need to bolster research and development, which is typically low in Canada compared with the rest of the world.
The report's authors, economists with the International Monetary Fund, suggest Canada can improve its growth potential with policies that encourage international trade and reduce barriers that prevent foreign ownership of telecommunications companies, airlines and broadcasters.
Canadian Auto Workers union economist Jim Stanford said low productivity gains nationally are partly due to lower output in Alberta's oilsands, as the resource becomes more difficult to extract.
"Our absolute level of labour productivity is no higher today than it was three years ago. That's a pretty damning statistic," he said, adding that despite government tax breaks, business investment has been low in Canada.
"I think part of the problem is globalization: businesses are investing, they're just not investing here. I also think part of the reason is our failure to do what the Japanese and Germans did, which was create a critical mass of high-tech firms that carve out niches in world markets."
Sharpe said bolstering research and development is one of the keys to Canada's economic recovery, but spending is typically lower in Canada compared with the rest of the world, and Canadian firms are spending less and less every year although it's not clear why.
"Wealso spend less on information communication technology per worker than the United States. It's another real structural problem. We have a good labour force but we can do better in terms of having more...post-graduates," he said.
The report said that even though Canada might need help as it continues to recover, its outlook is better compared with much of the world due to strong economic frameworks that helped it avoid much of the impact of the recession in the first place.
It also lauded the federal and provincial governments for cutting corporate income taxes and considering policies that would increase competition and productivity.
In a separate report released Thursday on the IMF's website, the organization's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said most developed countries will continue to experience only a slow economic recovery in 2011, with growth so weak it will barely be enough to reduce unemployment.
Blanchard said both developed and developing countries should focus on rebalancing their economies next year by taking steps to control debt and by letting exchange rates adjust more freely.
“Without this global rebalancing, there will no healthy recovery,” he said.
[quote][CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]Near term outlook is $1,300 per ounce - Canaccord Adams[/FONT][/FONT]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]A range from $850 to $1,400 per ounce - The Bank of Nova Scotia[/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]A jump in the Spot Price of the commodity to $1500 - The Inflection Point [/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]The price of gold is set to rally to $2,000 per ounce next year as an improvement in the economic outlook causes fear of inflation and currency debasement, Philip Manduca, ECU Group[/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT=Arial,sans-serif] Our silver prices forecast for 2010 and 2011 is such that silver will exceed its non inflation adjusted high of $48.70 per ounce and its price can reach $55 to $65 range in the coming years. – Bad Credit Advisor[/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]Gold will finish at $1450 (or higher) on December 31, 2010. Silver (a.k.a The DOG) will finish at $23 (or higher) on December 31, 2010 – OutlawJoseyWalesJr[/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]While some are claiming gold has peaked, I believe gold is nowhere near a top and will reach a new nominal high between $1,300-$1,500 during 2010. Silver will outperform gold reaching $24 or higher as the gold/silver ratio dips towards 55. - Jason Hamlin, GoldStockBull.com[/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]I would not go short gold, but I would go long the dollar. - [I] [FONT="]Vincent Farrell, Jr. Soleil Securities Group[/FONT][/I][/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER][FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT=Arial,sans-serif] Gold prices will fall in 2010 - [/FONT] [FONT="] Rick Aristotle Munarriz[/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]Gold will hit 1375. Silver will break 30. Dollar will regain some strength(may hit 85 or 90) and drop off dramatically to new lows. - silvertooth [/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]Gold to $1,400-$1,500 for sure, possibly to $2,000 followed by a correction back down to the $1,400-$1,500 level. - [FONT=Arial,sans-serif]Dave Skarica[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[CENTER] [FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica] [FONT="]Gold to $850 by August-September. He said, "[I][FONT=Arial,sans-serif]I could be wrong[/FONT][/I]". - [FONT=Arial,sans-serif]Frank Barbera[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/CENTER]
[QUOTE]Analysts have predicted a tenth annual advance in Gold bullion prices and many have raised their forecasts for Gold in 2011 dramatically.
In July Bank of America-Merrill Lynch commodity research chief, Francisco Blanch, said, "Gold is the ultimate backstop to the sovereign crisis," and predicted an increase in the price of Gold to $1500 an ounce by the end of 2011.
Goldman Sachs recently raised its 12 month Gold price forecast by 1.5 per cent, to $1,355.00 an ounce. Goldman also increased its 12 month silver price forecast by 1.3 per cent, to $22.60 an ounce.
John Licata, chief commodity strategist at Blue Phoenix, sees Gold's price reaching $1375 an ounce. He said the Federal Reserve's expansion of its quantitative easing through bond purchases confirmed his view.
Dan Brebner, analyst at Deutsche Bank in London and the most accurate forecaster of Gold bullion's movements so far this year, says Gold bullion may reach $1,550.
Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who was the most accurate forecaster in the first quarter expects the price of Gold to rise as high as $1,400 next year.
Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, while not predicting a timeframe, forecast Gold's price to rise to more than $2,000 per ounce.
David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, who correctly forecast the credit crisis and recession, continues to express his view that Gold bullion prices will remain in a strong uptrend and could reach beyond $3,000 an ounce. [/QUOTE]
There is a lot of similar predictions from the analysts, let's hope they are right because Gold has been unstable for the last several weeks after hitting and falling down from the $1400 + mark
Societe Generale Favors Gold and Silver Against Farm Commodities - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Gold Investments[url]http://goldandsilverblog.com/societe-generale-favors-gold-and-silver-against-farm-commodities-0115/[/url]
[QUOTE] According to the bank’s predictions, gold could advance 11% in the next year.[/QUOTE]
So far silver has done much better than Gold but it looks to be a good bet still.
Taseko Mining - Insider Trading - Possible Ottawa role in stock sell-off probed - Regional Discussion -> North America[url]http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/11/24/f-greg-weston-taseko.html[/url]
This is disturbing especially if you weren't part of the elite group who got the insider tip from the Government with this stock.
It's a shame that the CBC has disabled public comments on the story.
Asian stock markets fall as Europe debt fears, China growth questions weigh - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock Discussion[url]http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/17112010/2/biz-finance-asian-stock-markets-fall-europe-debt-fears-china.html[/url]
The market this week has plummeted, is this the beginning of the crash or just a false alarm?
Middle Class in Crisis: America Needs a Reality Check, Gary Shilling Says - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Gold Investments[url]http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/middle-class-in-crisis-america-needs-a-reality-check-gary-shilling-says-535609.html;_ylt=Aj5QgA_c0qkU7vrB2xIyk4C7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2aW03YTJ2BHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDbWlkZGxlY2xhc3Np?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,TBT,UUP,TLT,SPY,GLD&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=[/url]
This seems to be the case in most developed nations and is quite alarming.
This sounds like good news. Does this mean the Chinese stocks will rise faster if the market crashes?
Has the market crashed this week because it's looking very bad in my opinion. Even gold has plummeted to $1338!
I read a few months ago on the Chinese news that the Euro could potentially collapse and members would go back to their own currencies.
This would be a huge disaster that could affect the world, perhaps on the same level as the US downturn?
In either case it seems the Euro and EU is in dire straights right now and has been for some time.
This is interesting but I have to admit I understood little of it and it was more of an interview than anything else but makes for a good read for those who know.
Stock Market Volatility: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock Discussion[url]http://www.investingdaily.com/id/17931/stock-market-volatility-you-aint-seen-nothing-yet-.html[/url]
This sounds scary indeed, but this is a prediction that stocks will ride high until at least sometime in 2011.
Either the market will crash soon or inexplicably continue well into next year.
This is where I think we as investor's have to evaluate our risks and also take our profits when they meet our threshold (don't be greedy/piggy since we all know pigs get slaughtered).
I've love to know why too because I'm expecting a crash. I've read that these conditions have virtually never occurred.
Why are equities and commodities rising so much still given the very opposite situation with the US and European economies?
My belief is that there is some manipulation of the markets and commodities going on. We already know silver has been said to have been manipulated and this is being investigated.
I've only skimmed this one so I won't comment more until I read a bit more but this does sound interesting.
It makes you wonder if this is half of the problem in the USA with all of the mortgage fraud going on.
[QUOTE]He is alleged to have received gains totaling 125 million yuan ($18.7 million) by using his company’s influence to recommend securities through various media outlets[/QUOTE]
I've always been concerned in North America that this is what goes on, the elite/analysts/media can work together to bring up or bring down whatever equities they like.
If we could trust the analysts and the media everyone would always make money based on that advice right? Of course we all know the reality is different.
Developed nations face years of austerity and debt-cutting - Stock/Investment Discussion -> General Investment Discussion[url]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Developed-nations-face-years-cnnm-1084143908.html;_ylt=ArBiHqob0GyXMgJoWE.RfwK7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2ZjdlYnFtBHBvcwMxMARzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZGV2ZWxvcGVkbmF0?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=[/url]
This does sound scary but debt cutting is a reality in most developed nations. I personally wonder if it would be best to consider life overseas where the economies are quite well such as most of Asia and the Middle East.
In Canada we've definitely seen a decline in the last 20 years in both business, quality of life, wages and benefits.
There have been many similar predictions from various countries, companies and analysts around the world and here is yet another:
The Western world has run out of ideas and is "finished financially" while emerging economies across the world will continue to grow, David Murrin, CIO at Emergent Asset Management told CNBC on the tenth anniversary of coining of the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China, by Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Murrin said that the East was depending less on the West and the rise of a consumer society was the first step in the expansion of an economic empire. [/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Murrin added that while China is by far the biggest emerging economy and would be at the center of a new economic order, other emerging nations were set to join the BRIC countries and new political orders and alliances would come about as a result.
"This isn't just a BRIC story, this is the end of the Christian Western Empire versus the rise of the whole emerging world led by China as the foremost and most powerful," Murrin told CNBC.
I'm only surprised that Murrin made no comment either way about the Middle East, specifically Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Nations who have been doing very well and predicted to continue this way. One thing for sure is that their future will be dependent on how well they remove themselves away from their oil dependent economies (and most of them are at least the UAE with tourism and other business). My prediction is that countries at least like the UAE will turn into a "Hong Kong" or "Singapore" of the Middle East and are likely here to stay.
I think for all of us, whether we work, invest for a living or own a business need to consider diversifying and investing in more stable and healthy/growing overseas markets.
Should be worried if we're being told tech stocks have done well and now the benchmark Cisco is not?
There have been increasing signs even by the mainstream media of a 'wobby market' in the last few days.
My interpretation is that these guys are giving a clue that they think the market is artificially high and is bound to crash:
[QUOTE]The last time the Dow fell during a president's third year was in 1939. It also fell in 1931, and in three earlier years. The reason for concern now is that we are going through the most troubled economic period since the 1930s.
"We haven't been in this kind of position for very many years, where we have a very weak economy and the ammunition the Fed has to do something is running out," says Edgar Peters, an investment strategist who helps oversee $15 billion at First Quadrant in Pasadena, Calif. The Fed's QE2 plans are experimental, Mr. Peters notes, and few think it is as effective as actually reducing the Fed's target interest rates, which already are near zero.
With little hope for fiscal stimulus, "you have to believe that the economy is going to right itself by itself, and that is a big if," Mr. Peters says. "That would be the argument that gridlock is not good."
Record-breaking gold wins support from economic woes: WGC - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Gold Investments[url]http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/28102010/24/f-afp-record-breaking-gold-wins-support-economic-woes-wgc.html[/url]
Obviously this article is biased since it was made by the World Gold Council but at the same time it rings true with me.
The US economy is not faring well and the "Quantitative Easing" won't be helping it and the US Dollar will probably keep slipping, causing gold to keep rising, and that's what has happened so far after their plan was formally announced.
Their reasons are:
2.) Fundamental Change in the underlying business
3.) Challenges to your investing thesis
4.) There are better stocks
I fully agree and as always, keep your pride and emotion away from your stocks.
The thing is that 99% of emerging markets are sold through the NYSE so the question should be, "if the stock market crashes would you still hold onto Emerging Markets"?
This is the problem, to me it's irrelevant in these conditions about how the emerging markets are and will do, which I think have great potential.
However, I'm willing to sell my Chinese stocks anytime because I fear a crash is looming. Looking back to 2008, no stock was spared, and the only stocks/ETFs that rose like mad were gold metal/mining related ones for the most part.
This is why I don't trust analysts, gold rose to 1397 USD just 3 days after they wrote this. It seems the goal is to artificially keep the markets afloat by scaring people out of the safe haven that gold is during a stock market crash.
I see what they're saying and why they're saying it. For the long-term their picks probably make the most sense, however the longer we hold a stock, the less we can be sure about it's future right? However, for short-term investments as they show, you could have made a killing. With the stock market being so unpredictable and possibly ready to crash (the conditions are ripe for it), I would sell any stock that has a decent profit.
Motley Fool sells their tip service hard, and I'm guessing their subscribers would have missed out on great opportunities if they would be willing to take some risk.
[CENTER]Return since July 16[/CENTER]
Virgin Media 41.1% Sun Communities 20.5% Vonage 3.3% Las Vegas Sands 95.7% US Airways 28% Average 37.7% S&P 500 8% Source: Google Finance.
Even worse, I suggested that readers look into three companies with better fundamentals: graphics chipmaker NVIDIA (Nasdaq: [URL="http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/NVDA.aspx?source=isssitthv0000001"]NVDA[/URL]), seed and pesticide giant Monsanto (NYSE: [URL="http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/MON.aspx?source=isssitthv0000001"]MON[/URL]), and pharmacy Walgreen. Their performance?
[CENTER]Return since July 16[/CENTER]
NVIDIA 12.3% Monsanto 5.1% Walgreen 14.6% Average 10.7% S&P 500 8%
Gold May Decline on Speculation Fed Bond Purchases Will Miss Expectations - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Gold Investments[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-03/gold-drops-amid-speculation-fed-bond-purchase-program-to-miss-expectations.html[/url]
Fast forward 2 days later and Gold rose to $1397 USD an ounce which is a record high.
Do the analysts really not know or are they just playing games/trying to manipulate the market?
I'm new to investing but my semi-educated calls are based on the fundamentals and not "analyst hype" and I've always felt gold will increase and that the Fed's stimulus no matter how small or large will devalue the USD in the long-run, which will send Gold sky high.
I read some comments on Motley Fool that said "if they're saying to sell gold then we buy it".
What exactly does this "quantitative easing" mean besides that it's only going to devalue their currency.
How does a country invest in it's own bonds? Am I wrong or is this just a round-about/clever way of saying "we're printing more money". They can't spend money that they don't have, so the only way is to print more in order to buy the bonds right? I say this because I've read a lot of references after the announcement about printing more money.
Stock Market Could Crash At Any Time: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock Discussion[url]http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s2i85806[/url]
[QUOTE]Would it be wise to invest in gold?
"Not really. Let's say you have a $20 gold piece and you need groceries or gas. That gold piece is worth $2,000. How are they going to give you change? It would have to be in dollars."[/QUOTE]
This is actually from "The Spoof" so it's fake/invented news but is a good laugh and sounds close to the truth :)
Even the US dollar rose on Friday, Gold still closed at another record level. I think the $1500/ounce in 2011 will be correct and maybe even underestimated at this rate.
Gold Closes at Lowest Price in Three Weeks on Dollar’s Rebound - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Gold Investments[url]http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-27/gold-closes-at-lowest-price-in-three-weeks-on-dollar-s-rebound.html[/url]
Fast forward from Oct 27 to Nov 5 and gold closed at an all time high of just hunder 1400USD per ounce.
I would say this trend wll grow and never reverse and spells doom for cable and satellite companies in the long run.
More people are getting free digital TV via antenna and FTA satellite than eve before.
Then there is Netflix, Hulu and specialty sites where you can watch TV, movies and shows im high quality.
Even though the supposed reason is the economy why would people go back after seeing the light?
I'd be nervous to have satellite or cable stocks right now and would sell especially if there is profit.
Shouldn't the main concern be a looming stock market crash?
The US economy is weak and governmental policies/worries will only make it worse.
Gold reached an all time high today and so did the stock markets.
I'm no expert but this isn't right and something has to give.
Either the market has to crash and gold will keep rising or the opposite.
Why can't the analysts be straight forward and honest about this?
Their stock rose sharply after announcing they will provide hardware to Samsung, Huawei Telecom, Motorola in addition to just Nokia.
Even one week later their stock RFMD is still climbing.
The gist of this article seems to be that silver prices have been manipulated downwards or have at least been slowed down by an illegal means.
If this is the case it's not hard to believe the same people have done the same with gold.
Analyst Actions on Chinese Stocks: ACH, BIDU, BORN, CEO, CHA, CHL, CHU, CYOU ... (Oct - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock Discussion[url]http://www.cnanalyst.com/2010/10/analyst-actions-on-chinese-stocks-ach-bidu-born-ceo-cha-chl-chu-cyou-oct-22-2010.html[/url]
This looks good for a lot of the major Chinese stocks, however no one mentions that an NYSE stock market crash could seriously hurt these stocks.
This is the only negative thing for Canadians who want to invest in China. It's too bad Chinese companies stocks can't be purchased directly on a Chinese stock exchange.
New Trend Development for China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited (CHU) - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock Discussion[url]http://www.marketintellisearch.com/articles/1066504.html[/url]
This is a good trend, I was doing very well with the Unicom stock until Vodafone sold its shares.
For the first time in weeks my Unicom stock was back in the green, making a small profit.
Hopefully the momentum will stabilize and continue, although I'm more worried about some kind of NYSE stock crash in November affecting these stocks.
Home sales won't compete with year-earlier boom until mid-2011: CREA - Regional Discussion -> North America[url]http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/15102010/2/biz-finance-home-sales-won-t-compete-year-earlier-boom.html[/url]
What do people predict for the Canadian real estate market? I personally feel there has been a bubble building for a long-time and there will at least be a temporary burst next year, combined with the slowing economy in Canada.
Actually for months, if you read between the lines of CREA propaganda the overall housing sales and pricing has been dropping. There are just key areas such as Vancouver city that isn't slowing down as much.
Foreign direct investment in China up in possible sign of renewed confidence - Regional Discussion -> Asia[url]http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/15102010/2/biz-finance-foreign-direct-investment-china-possible-sign-renewed-confidence.html[/url]
I wonder, is this a sign of an improving world economy or are struggling economies and countries, desperately investing into China, hoping it will solve their own economic problems?
This is a scary thought for Canadians in many ways because we are tied to the USA so closely.
Of course it is an opportunity for those who aren't somehow tied to the US directly whether through investments or business.
Imagine the buying power that Canadians will have on the US market?
Chinese Stocks - Challenges and Opportunities for the Fall of 2010—Part II - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Stock Discussion[url]http://www.chinavestor.com/newsletter/72402-challenges-and-opportunities-for-the-fall-of-2010part-ii.html[/url]
I found the article quite informative, but it also makes me feel the BMO China ETF which invests in a bunch of top performing companies across different sectors may be the best way to go.
Does this mean I don't pay commission again or do I get dinged a certain amount each quarter, or only pay fees exactly 1 year to the date?
I've read everywhere and haven't found any details of when and how the "management fees" are taken from ETFs.
My understanding is the following:
1.) You pay extra commission/fees when buying ETFs compared to a normal stock
2.) You pay extra commission/fees when selling.
3.) You are charged management fees while holding the ETF, but it's not clear if it's charged annually, quarterly etc..
Is this an industry secret?
Not many analysts have made comments or predictions, but I read that when the economy/stock market starts going south, the rich people put their money into gold.
Isn't that the reason why gold has been rising lately, because the US and world economy hasn't faired well?
One analyst said that the stocks are high, gold is high and the economy is bad and that something has to give.
I'm not an expert but if I had to gamble, I'd say stick with gold and wait to see what happens with the stocks.
But what I want to know is if anyone is or has seen a predicted stock crash?
How high do you think gold will go in 2010 and 2011? - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Gold InvestmentsGold set a new high of $1376.70 USD/ounce today.
I've read predictions of $1500 sometime in 2011 and also heard speculation that if the global recovery gets better next year, then gold will slow down.
I guess the real answer is how will the economy behave during this time and how will the currency wars play out?
I haven't followed Gold for very long but it seems like Gold vs Stocks are at war with each other. Some days gold rises like $20-$30 at ounce and other days at falls nearly as much.
It seems some of the elite investors can't make up their minds if the economy will recover or crash, and/or there are some gold profit takers who bought in months or years ago.
What do you think is happening?
I personally don't like the looks of most of those stocks, and the price of most of them is quite high.
Still, with gold running high, if you pick a good company you should see some returns. I do realize that there is not necessarily a correlation between the price of gold and the stock performance though.
Canadian Gold Mining Companies increasing production - Stock/Investment Discussion -> Gold Investments[url]http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/canadian-gold-stocks/2542[/url]
I'd like to revisit those stocks and see how they performed between Sep 2009 (when the article was written)and today.
That was a good post, the OP was trading some of the cheaper gold stocks on the TSX Venture exchange.
One thing I note is that the highs that the OP hit and made money on are gone, and the stocks have dropped significantly from those positions.
Still, if you want to gamble a bit and know the geo-political factors behind Gold exploration and know how to call a good company, I think you could do well.
What I take from that article is that you should never buy at a high with those types of stocks, look at the 52Week low and high, and only buy if it hits near or below the low point. I believe that way you minimize your risk, and it would have proved true for some of the OP's examples.
Of course the other factor is that this is not a "buy and hold" type of stock trading. You will have to watch for fluctuations and make the call to sell to make a decent amount of profit.
Here is a list of "cheap Canadian gold mining stocks":
ZCH - Great way to invest in China - BMO China Equity Hedged to CAD Index ETF - Stock/Investment Discussion -> ETF DiscussionI think this is a great way to invest in China, they have all the most popular state-run companies and other tech companies.
The fund itself is new as of January 2010 but so far has been fairly profitable.
I wish I found out about it sooner because I invested in China Mobile and Unicom, both of which did well until shortly after Vodaphone sold their billions in shares they had in both companies. If I had invested in this ETF I wouldn't have lost money.
Also some stocks like PetroChina and others are quite expensive so most of us could never afford to really buy those stocks separately.
Do note that all of those stocks trade on the NYSE so you have multiple possibilities for currency issues if you are Canadian like me. The stocks are sold in USD on the NYSE, but of course are really sold in RMB in mainland China.
Here are the 42 Chinese stocks that make up the fund:
China Mobile (Hk) Ltd ADR 8.29% CNOOC Limited ADR 7.46% China Life Insurance ADR 7.12% PetroChina Co Ltd ADR 6.64% China Unicom Ltd ADS 5.28% China Petro&Chem Corp ADR 4.95% Baidu, Inc., ADR 4.78% China Telecom Corp Sp ADR 3.56% Ctrip.com Intl, ADR 3.46% Yanzhou Coal Mining ADR 3.21% Aluminum Corp China ADR 2.68% Focus Media Holding ADR 2.29% NetEase.com Inc ADR 2.11% Mindray Medical Intl ADR 2.06% New Oriental Ed&Tk Sp ADR 1.89% Trina Solar Limited ADR 1.80% Huaneng Power Intl ADR 1.77% Semiconductor Manfct, ADR 1.57% Longtop Financial Tch ADR 1.54% JA Solar Holdings Co ADR 1.54% Cash 1.53% China Eastern Air ADR 1.53% China Sthrn Air ADR 1.42% Yingli Green Energy ADR 1.42% Shanda Interactive ADR 1.39% Melco Crown Entertnmt ADR 1.37% Home Inns&Hotels M ADR 1.36% Suntech Power Hldgs ADR 1.34% VanceInfo Tech ADR 1.32% E-House China H. Ltd ADS 1.31% WuXi Pharmatech Inc ADR 1.29% Sinopec Shangh Petro ADR 1.25% ReneSola Ltd, ADR 1.25% Perfect World Co Ltd, ADR 1.23% LDK Solar Company Ltd ADR 1.03% Giant Interactive Grp ADR 1.03% Guangshen Railway ADR 0.94% Cninsure, Inc., ADR 0.92% Shanda Games Limited, ADR 0.90% Spreadtrum Communicat-ADR 0.78% 7 Days Group Holding,ADR 0.77% China Medical Tech Sp ADR 0.62% Total Holdings in Portfolio 42
[URL="http://www.etfs.bmo.com/bmo-etfs/glance?fundId=75757"]Here is the at a glance profile from the fund website:[/URL]
Ticker Symbol ZCH Net Assets ($MM) (Oct 13, 2010) $9.3 Market Price $16.5500 12 Month Low/High (Market Price) $12.79 / $16.59 Price (NAV) (Oct 13, 2010) $16.5235 12 Month Low/High (Price (NAV)) $13.08 / $16.52 Weighted Average Yield (%) 1.41% Maximum Annual Management Fee 0.650% Eligibility RRSP/RRIF/RESP/DPSP/ TFSA Date Started Jan 19, 2010 Fiscal Year End December 31 Units Outstanding (000's) 566 CUSIP 05590F101 Index BNY Mellon China Select ADR Index CAD Hedged Exchange TSX
Gold has several forms of investment.
1.) Bullion Gold Bars/Coins
This is considered insurance/saving for a rainy day and preservation of wealth.
You physically own and possess the gold, this is a good long-term hedge for generations to preserve wealth rather than currency. It is not really an investment IMHO, it's just a safe/alternative way to store wealth and money. Maybe for the future when we're rich though :)
2.) Gold Certificates
It is the "Perth Mint Certificate Programme" and is government backed throughout the world.
They come in "Allocated" and "Unallocated" account forms. Unallocated can be converted to allocated and then you can physically have the gold shipped to you if you desire.
They are very liquid and can be purchased online (I believe).
*I believe this is just a more digital/modern/convenient form of #1 so it doesn't interest me at this time.
*Of course be careful to deal with a proper provider, you could be scammed if they don't really have the gold allocated to the amount you purchase. It's like buying a car that they don't have/doesn't exist.
3.) Similar to the above but totally unregulated and possibly risky.
*Supposedly " Gold Money and Bullion Vault are reputable companies.
4.) Investing in paper gold/stock/ETF/Future/Options etc..
This means things like stocks in companies who are mining and exploring for gold.
I read that you need to have a strong understanding of the gold industry so you can identify risks and rewards properly. It is being suggested that you shouldn't be buying just one or two stocks but a basket through "mutual funds" (not sure if I like that idea).
For short term investment ETF, forward, future, option and spread are the common way.
There is a risk of a "margin call" on the above derivatives which is said to risky for DIY/non-pro investors. Of course this means there is a huge opportunity for immense gains.
There is a penalty per annum of 0.4-0.5% which means your gold allocation shrinks.
These are mainly used/intended for day traders and short term investment.
One of the NYSE ETFs is "GLD"
Share prices may not increase even if the gold price rises.
Things like management, auditors, geologists and whether it's producing gold or exploring are key factors to consider.
*how much reserves it has in the ground
*subject to political, economic, or environmental risk?
These are regarded as volatile and high risk, but highly rewarding too of course.
Choose "large-capitalisation un-hedged senior gold mining companies with proven reserves, strong earnings and balance sheets".
Contract between two parties that expires at an agreed-upon time in the future. I would call this a bet/outright gambling with a friend etc...
The purchaser buys the right (not the obligation) to buy a gold mining stock (a 'call option') or sell ('put option') a gold mining stock at a specific price on or before the agreed-upon date (expiration).
These are very short-term contracts and can expire worthless with all of your investment (outlay) being lost.
It is said you're trading volatility rather than price.
*I don't understand options just yet,I need to research it more.
Gold futures options
Choosing The Best Canadian Gold ETF
HBP COMEXÂ® GOLD ETF (HUG)
This is interesting but it is not hedged against the USD, and their website says currency fluctuations will be passed back on.
I find it interesting because it gives you a shot at the action by investing in Gold Futures.
not applicable not applicable HUG $12.64
Gold itself as a commodity in Canadian dollars and hedged to remove currency risk
Endeavors to correspond to the performance of the COMEXÂ® gold futures contract for a subsequent delivery month i.e. It does not own physical gold
In a stable market with an upward sloping futures price, it would by nature lose money as each futures bought each month tends to be more expensive than the value of the expiring contract being sold.
The Horizons BetaPro COMEXÂ® Gold ETF (HBP COMEXÂ® Gold ETF) seeks investment results, before fees, expenses, distributions, brokerage commissions and other transaction costs, that endeavour to correspond to the performance of the COMEXÂ® gold futures contract for a subsequent delivery month. Any U.S. dollar gains or losses as a result of the ETF's investment will be hedged back to the Canadian dollar to the best of the ETF's ability. If the HBP COMEXÂ® Gold ETF is successful in meeting its investment objective, its net asset value should gain approximately as much, on a percentage basis, as any increase in the COMEXÂ® gold futures contract for a subsequent delivery month when the COMEXÂ® gold futures contract for that delivery month rises on a given day. Conversely, the HBP COMEXÂ® Gold ETF's net asset value should lose approximately as much, on a percentage basis, as the COMEXÂ® gold futures contract for a subsequent delivery month when the COMEXÂ® gold futures contract for that delivery month declines on a given day.
Principal Investment Strategy
The HBP COMEXÂ® Gold ETF invests in financial instruments that have similar return characteristics as the performance of the COMEXÂ® gold futures contract for a subsequent delivery month. In order to achieve this objective, the total underlying notional value of these instruments will typically not exceed one times the total assets of the ETF. Assets not invested in financial instruments may be invested in debt instruments or money market instruments with a term not to exceed 365 days, or repurchase agreements with a term not to exceed 30 days.
Sprott Physical Gold Trust ETV (PHYS)http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=PHYS
This fund is said to hold gold at the Royal Canadian Mint.
I don't like this ETF very much. I don't know the details behind it, but it is supposed to be physically backed gold.
The price of gold has risen and other ETFs have also risen to reflect that. This stock does not trade this way, and it's also not traded on the TSX.
ISHARES GOLD TRUST (IGT.TO)http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IGT.TO
I would advise against this fund. They have been accused of not having enough in physical gold inventory.
It's also said that in the Prospectus that trading may be suspended if COMEX gold trading is restricted or gold delivery is not possible.
PRECIOUS METALS BULLION TRUST (PBU-UN.TO)http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=PBU-UN.TO
This fund does interest me because it invests in physical gold, silver and platinum bullion bars. They are fully allocated, insured and physically segregated in the Bank of Nova Scotia Treasury vaults. This sounds like a well maintained and regulated ETF.
Unitholders can also redeem quarterly for whole bars of physical gold, silver and platinum bullion (there are minimums though).
Central Fund of Canada / Central Gold Trust
Central Fund of Canada CEF-A.TO/CEF-U.TO are headquarted in Calgary, AB and keeps most of its assets in Gold and Silver with some cash.
Central Gold Trust GTU-UN.TO/GTU-U.TO is as the name suggests, it keeps most of its assets in Gold.
CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA LTD., CL (CEF-A.TO)I like this fund, it seems to track the price of gold in the sense that as gold has increased, so has the share price. Remember that it is a mix of gold and silver. The share prices are also quite attractive at about $17 CAD at the time of writing.
CARFINO INC FD (CEF-U.TO)This fund went up today over $1 a share, the price is attractive. I have to find the history of this one though.
It trades weird or doesn't have normal history so I will be leaving it.
CENTRAL GOLDTRUST (GTU-U.TO)http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GTU-U.TO
One thing I don't like is that the shares are in USD despite it being on the TSX. For those who don't want to worry about currency issues then I would avoid this fund.
CENTRAL GOLDTRUST (GTU-UN.TO)http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GTU-UN.TO
I don't find this fund attractive at all. The share prices are expensive at about $51 CAD and I don't think it has risen enough with the price of gold.
Growth is fairly linear but is it worth it when some of the lower priced shares seem similar in growth?
CLAYMORE GOLD BULLION ETF (CGL.TO)http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=CGL.TO
This fund appears to hold pure gold assets. At $12 CAD the share price is attractive.
It does rise fairly well too in recent times.
The Claymore Gold Bullion ETF seeks to replicate the performance of the price of gold bullion, less its expenses and fees. The assets of the Claymore Gold ETF consist primarily of physical gold bullion (the “Portfolio”) which the Claymore Gold ETF purchases and holds in accordance with its investment objective, strategy, policies and restrictions, as well as any forward contracts relating to the currency hedge of the hedged common units, cash and permitted gold certificates, if any.
Claymore Gold ETF invests its assets in holdings of unencumbered gold
bullion, in 100 or 400 troy ounce international bar sizes, and will not
speculate with regard to short-term changes in gold prices. This
strategy provides investors with the ability to invest in unencumbered
gold bullion in a convenient, tradable and secure manner without the
associated inconvenience and high transaction, handling, storage,
insurance and other costs typical of direct gold bullion investment.
All physical gold bullion owned by the Claymore Gold ETF is stored in the vault facilities of a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank, or an affiliate or a division thereof, on an allocated and segregated basis.
BENEFITS OF THE CLAYMORE GOLD BULLION ETF, include:
- The opportunity to capitalize on Gold with currency hedge against the US dollar
- Easy access and safe direct investment in Gold Bullion
- The Gold Bullion is stored in the treasury vault facilities of ScotiaMocatta, a division of the Bank of Nova Scotia.
- Low-cost, direct ownership of Gold Bullion
- Low management fee of 0.50% (which includes all operating expenses, including custody fees).
ConlusionMy favorites are CEF.A and PBU.UN and CGL
I want PBU.UN for sure, I like how the fund is managed and linked to physical allocated gold (there can't be any games).
CEF.A has financials listed on the TSX website, and CGL does not.
CEF.A is a longer, established fund.
If I was going to invest in two Canadian Gold ETFs it would be CEF.A and PBU.UN
CGL = Claymore Pure Bullion Gold
Claymore Investments established in 2009
CEF.A = Central Fund Silver/Gold Bullion
PBU.UN = Precious Bullion Silver/Gold
Managed by the Brompton Group and is a fund established in 2009